There is no alternative. Whatever the causes, pace or impacts of climate change, people, cultures, economies and eco-systems will adapt to climate change as it occurs. What’s in question is where, how much and when adaptation will occur and with what strategic planning, distribution of costs and injury.
To date, the inevitability of adaptation has been over-shadowed by the attention to efforts to prevent global warming. Scary projections of flooded coastal cities and wholesale ecological change have been used more to support campaigns to reduce CO2 emissions than to promote serious planning for ocean rise and changed eco-systems. Adaptation planning has not been the priority and has even seemed a cop-out. But as hopes to prevent or slow climate change are not realized, adaption planning is emerging as a priority.
Indeed, behind the headlines efforts to plan for adaptation are already underway. President Obama’s initial support for cap and trade got the attention. But he also issued an Executive Order establishing a Climate Change Adaptation Task Force that is coordinating very significant federal efforts to gather data and plan for adaptation. Many of those efforts are collected at EPA’s webpage on adaptation. More than a dozen states have commissioned adaptation plans, e.g., the Massachusetts Climate Change Adaptation Report. Some universities have developed programs focused on adaptation planning, e.g., UNC’s Center for Law, Environment, Adaptation and Resources (CLEAR). Insurers and re-insurers, public authorities responsible for long-term infrastructure, and societies of professionals such as engineers and others are putting serious consideration into what adaptation will require over time by way of changed standards for public works and buildings.
These efforts do not yet amount to a broad plan, but are laying the foundations for adaptation planning to seep broadly into capital planning and resource protection efforts across all facets of our economy. Compulsory central planning is probably not a politically acceptable option – but the inevitability and breadth of adaptation efforts mean that millions of decision-makers still will plan for adaptation over time.