Impact of Midterm Elections on Environmental Protection - A Green Wave, and a Green Wall

Posted on November 26, 2018 by Joseph Manko

Environmental protection was “federalized” in 1970 under President Nixon, with the creation of the EPA and the launch of several decades of federal statutes and regulations designed to make uniform the states’ environmental compliance requirements. 

During the past almost 50 years, I have seen the politicization of environmental protection and the best and the worst of federal leaders who were trusted with protecting our environment.  This politicization has grown more extreme since Donald Trump’s election in 2016.  Given the federal government’s important role in protecting the environment, it’s worth examining the impact of the midterm elections on environmental protection during his next two years in office. 

 One way of reviewing the election results is to consider the campaign conducted by the League of Conservation Voters (“LCV”) at both the federal and state levels, and LCV’s conclusions regarding that effort.  LCV publishes a National Environmental Scorecard covering the most important environmental legislation considered and the corresponding voting records of all members of Congress, as well as a list of the “Dirty Dozen” legislators at both the federal and state levels.  For the first time this year, LCV published two such lists at the federal level, one for the House and another for the Senate. 

Here are the numbers: 

 

·         Was it a blue wave or a blue flood?

·         Flipping the House - 39 changes, 26 targeted seats with 12 of 13 Dirty Dozen House members defeated

·         Successfully defending a number of pro-environmental Senators in six targeted seats

·         Defeating 10 of the 12 state Dirty Dozen in the 2017/2018 elections

·         Successively supporting 10 new green governors

·         Successively supporting candidates in 16 state legislatures

·         Advancing clean energy initiatives at the state level (eight of 10 critical ballot measures passed)

·         Positively impacting redistricting and gerrymandering in two states

·         Achieving effective Blue/Green Alliance (LCV and labor unions, and environmental organizations combined))

In addition, many states have expressed their intention to enact clean energy programs (e.g., carbon tax which is a tough sell, cap and trade, and renewable energy) to replace Obama’s Clean Energy Plan which EPA intends to repeal and replace.  Unlike Congress, there are essentially single-party legislatures in a number of states, with 30 Republican-controlled and 18 Democratic-controlled, and such party control could impact the scope and content of state programs.  The party affiliation of the governor could also be important.  There are now 26 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors. 

 LCV’s analysis of the midterm elections is summarized in its post election tweet:  “For our clean air, clean water and public lands, this changes everything.”  However, divisive issues remain and could result in considerable controversy and debate.  Here are some examples:


·         Climate Change projections, as evidenced by the recent controversy about the rate of ocean warming

·         Most efficacious measures for reducing CO2 emissions and preserving existing reductions, such as from non-farmed soil and trees

·         Whether to exempt cross border traffic from environmental regulations

·         How to address catastrophic events such as floods and fires exacerbated by Climate Change

 

Last week’s NY Times editorial headline is entitled “Midterm Climate Report:  Partly Cloudy”.  And that may be a good summary of where things stand. 

At the federal level, for the next two years the Republicans will continue to control the Senate and Donald Trump will continue to live in the White House.  The unresolved question therefore is what impact the Democrats controlling the House will have on unwanted legislation and regulations. 

Perhaps more important, at the state level, there is little doubt that many states will fill the Trump-created vacuum as we return to pre-federalization days, with the states becoming environmental protection laboratories.  That of course raises even more questions regarding the future of environmental legislation and regulations and what standards – and how many – will emerge.

Managing Interdependence in a World of Chaos

Posted on August 8, 2018 by Dan Esty

Managing interdependence in our complicated world of nearly 200 nations and thousands of other interests pushing and pulling on global policymaking is never easy. And yet the challenge of getting the world community to work together to solve problems remains urgent – especially for issues of inescapably global scope such as climate change. The international chaos of the past several weeks (with the U.S. President attacking allies, denigrating longstanding alliances, cozying up to autocrats, and brandishing tariff increases like a hotheaded D’Artagnan slashing his way through a Three Musketeers movie) shows just how fragile our collaborative regimes can be. Against this backdrop, the success of the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement in getting so many nations and so many others (including mayors, governors, and CEOs) to commit to a joint effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions looks more amazing today than it did when the COP21 negotiations concluded three years ago.

Continued progress to address the threat of climate change cannot, however, be taken for granted.  Discord in one domain of international relations has a tendency to spill over into others.  Indeed, successful collaboration often depends on give-and-take across policy realms as well as within particular treaties or other cooperative endeavors. President Trump’s bellicose behavior on the international stage thus adds stress to the efforts to maintain momentum for climate change action – on top of the discord that he had already introduced by promising to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement.

But the news from the climate change front is not all bad.  President Trump cannot actually remove the United States from the Paris Agreement until 2020 based on the accord’s carefully specified withdrawal provisions.  More importantly, the leadership slack is being taken up by others.  Not only have foreign leaders, such as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Macron, grabbed the climate change mantle, a whole series of mayors (including Anne Hidalgo in Paris and Frank Jensen in Copenhagen not to mention hundreds of municipal leaders across America) and governors (including Jerry Brown in California and Jay Inslee in Washington state) have ramped up their greenhouse gas emissions control initiatives. Indeed, nearly 3000 subnational leaders across all 50 U.S. states have signed on to the “We Are Still In” coalition, and their actions have kept the United States more or less on target to achieve the emissions reduction commitment set out by President Obama in the U.S. “nationally determined contribution” to the Paris Agreement.

So while the Trump Administration’s non-cooperative posture may yet slow down the global march toward a clean energy future, it may also hasten the creation of a new multi-dimensional structure of global climate change action – and a framework for managing international interdependence more generally -- capable of withstanding the President’s belligerence. With layers of state and local activities as well as national and global ones, supported by initiatives from the business community and many other non-governmental actors, the pace of progress need not falter. And the unintended gift of a more diverse and robust regime of global collaboration may well endure.

A 2-Fer Update

Posted on May 1, 2018 by Mark Walker

Seth Jaffe and I have both previously blogged about Public Citizen v. Trump. It is the lawsuit challenging Trump’s Executive Order 13771 which, with some exceptions, mandates two existing federal regulations be eliminated for every new regulation. Several public interest groups challenged the EO asserting that it will block or repeal regulations needed to protect the environment, health and safety and that it directs federal agencies to engage in decision making that is arbitrary, capricious and contrary to other existing laws.

Since its filing, no substantive issues have been addressed. Instead, the case has been mired in addressing the issue of standing. Standing requires that the plaintiffs demonstrate a personal stake in the outcome of the controversy. In order to demonstrate Article III jurisdiction, the plaintiff associations must either show “associational standing” or “organizational standing”. Associational standing requires that the plaintiffs demonstrate that the EO will substantially increase the risk that at least one of their members will either be harmed or face a substantial probability of harm once such increased risk is taken into account. Organizational standing requires that the plaintiffs demonstrate that they have standing to sue in their own right which requires that they show the EO will have a chilling effect on their missions.

On February 26, 2018, Judge Moss ruled that the plaintiffs had failed to demonstrate standing and that, therefore, the court did not have jurisdiction to entertain their lawsuit. In a lengthy decision, the judge held that the plaintiffs had not identified a specific member who had yet suffered an injury as a result of the EO. The plaintiffs brought this action before any specific regulatory actions had been taken pursuant to the EO. Therefore, they could not identify any specific regulations that had been repealed or were likely to be repealed as a result of the EO. The court held that plaintiffs’ allegation that it was “likely” that the EPA and other agencies would stop seeking new regulations in order to protect existing ones was overly speculative.

Most of plaintiffs’ arguments in support of associational standing related to their claims that the EO had already delayed the issuance of new regulations. For example, the plaintiffs alleged that the EO had already delayed an unspecified regulation on greenhouse gas emissions. One of the NRDC’s members asserted that global warming and the resulting rise in sea level would deprive him of water supply and the use of his home. However, as Judge Moss noted, the plaintiffs had not identified any proposed rule or putative regulatory action that addressed this concern or that had been delayed by the EO.

As to organizational standing, the plaintiffs claimed that the EO would cause them harm by chilling their advocacy activities. The advanced basis for this claim was that the plaintiffs would now have to “think twice” about advocating new regulations with the knowledge that a new regulation could result in the elimination of two regulations which plaintiffs believe are necessary protections, thus imperiling their ability to advocate thereby chilling their First Amendment right. However, the plaintiffs could not point to any specific regulation which had yet presented this alleged Catch 22. Instead, they merely claimed they were now forced to consider the issue. Judge Moss held that this “think twice” argument did not establish an injury in fact.

This case is a text book example of the difficulties public advocacy groups face in demonstrating standing, particularly where the new proposed regulation has not yet been adopted or implemented. Although the plaintiffs amended their claims once before to address standing, Judge Moss has allowed them to amend again to try to establish standing. Of course, if subsequent agency actions pursuant to the EO demonstrate standing, the plaintiffs will then be allowed to pursue a lawsuit. It is noted that the Trump Administration is now proposing a 3-for-1 plan for 2018.

Eight Things Environmental Lawyers Can Do in the Age of Trump

Posted on August 28, 2017 by Michael Gerrard

One of the great things about the ACOEL is that its members are very diverse in their views on politics and policy.  On the subject of reactions to President Trump's environmental policies, we have a spectrum ranging from outraged to jubilant. Count me at the outraged end. I would welcome counter-thoughts from the other end of the spectrum.

With that disclaimer, here are my personal views.

This is a time of unprecedented peril to U.S. environmental law.  What can those of us environmental lawyers who are outraged do about this?

Obviously, each individual’s flexibility depends in large part on where we work – we academics have almost complete flexibility, as do lawyers in their own small firms; lawyers in NGOs quite a bit; lawyers in big law firms have significant constraints; and lawyers in government are the most tightly constrained.

But to the extent people do have flexibility, these are eight things we can do.

1. Push back

Resist these efforts by Trump, Scott Pruitt, Ryan Zinke and the rest. That may involve speaking out; suing or intervening or joining as amici in others’ lawsuits; or filing comments when the opportunity arises. We need to try to preserve the gains that were made in prior administrations to the extent possible.  Some day – though not soon enough -- we’ll have a new President who actually believes in law and science and cares about current and future generations, and when that day comes we’ll want to get back on track as quickly as possible.

2. Think globally, act locally

Much of the most important action for the rest of the Trump era will be at the state and the city levels. I’m fortunate to be in a state and a city where there is overwhelming consensus on the importance of environmental protection, and we have leaders who want to move forward – maybe not always as far and fast as we would like, but generally in the right direction. So those who are in state or city government, or who work closely with those who do, have special opportunities to devise and deploy tools that can work where you are and can serve as a model for elsewhere.

3. Decarbonize

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change we need to move away from fossil fuels and toward a clean energy economy that is centered around renewables like wind, solar and hydro, and that operates with the greatest possible degree of energy efficiency. The plummeting costs of wind and solar, in particular, mean we are in the midst of a very positive energy revolution in which renewables push out fossil. Lawyers are needed to help acquire the permits, real estate, and financing for the many new clean energy facilities and devices.

4. Adapt

The outlook for future climate change is extremely serious and seems to be getting worse. Sea level rise, melting ice, episodes of extreme heat, drought and precipitation, and other projections are no less than scary.  We need to build resilience into construction projects, natural resource management, and all manner of other activities. This can happen through zoning actions, licensing and rate proceedings, environmental impact review, and many other settings where lawyers are central players. We should do this both because we need our projects and activities to be resilient, and because if the leaders of large enterprises are led to recognize the impact that climate change may have on their own organizations, ultimately this should have a political impact.

5. Do no harm

If you can, avoid representing the NIMBY side in litigation against renewable energy projects.

In law firms -- If you possibly can, stay away from matters where you’ll be litigating on the side of Trump’s environmental deregulation campaign.

And to our friends who work at EPA, Interior, DOJ and other federal agencies -- you are in our hopes and prayers, we’re thinking of you all the time, we admire your perseverance, and to the extent we possibly can, we have your backs.

6. Reduce personal environmental footprint

Each of us can do more to lower our own environmental impact. This can mean, for example, replacing incandescent light bulbs with LEDs; insulating our homes; driving less and walking, biking, or taking mass transit more; driving electric, hybrid, or small efficient cars; eating less meat (especially beef); diligently turning off lights and appliances and closing faucets; flying less; and recycling more.

7. Contribute

Even if we can’t litigate or campaign directly, we can contribute money to those who do.  NGOs that are on the front lines of litigation, lawful activism and needed research, political action groups that work for pro-environmental candidates, and such candidates themselves are all worthy of support.

8.  Vote

Finally, there is no excuse for U.S. citizens not to vote at every opportunity, and those who can should work hard to try to persuade others to vote, and to cast those votes for an environmentally positive future.

If you do as many of these things as you can, you’ll have done your part in helping the planet through this awful Trump era, and hopefully into an area where we can all smile a lot more.

MUSINGS ON THE FUTURE OF EPA ENFORCEMENT – WILL IT GET TRUMPLED?

Posted on November 28, 2016 by John H. Johnson

Speculation about the environmental implications of the impending Trump presidency is running rampant.  That was the case as well when Ronald Reagan was elected President.  I served as an attorney in EPA Region 4 during his administration so I have a sense of dynamics that will be in play at the regional offices during the Trump administration.  With this historical perspective, I offer the following thoughts on the potential impact of the Trump administration on EPA enforcement at the regional level. 

·         Initial Frontal Assault – The early years of the Reagan presidency were marked by a robust and concerted effort to declaw EPA, largely carried out through political appointments at Headquarters and at the Regional Administrator level (the oft-repeated refrain was “doing more with less”).  Based on his condemnation of the “Department of Environmental Protection” during the campaign, I’m inclined to expect the same from President-elect Trump.  However, the list of names currently being floated for the positions of EPA Administrator and Assistant Administrator ranges widely from a climate denier to well-respected former program managers at EPA.  So, at this point, the jury is out on whether President-elect Trump will follow the Reagan administration’s lead or, like the George W. Bush administration, take a more restrained approach to regulatory implementation and enforcement, while recognizing the Agency’s fundamental legitimacy.

·         Effectiveness of a Frontal Assault – The efforts of the Reagan administration were largely unsuccessful and relatively short-lived.  At the regional level, this was due in no small part to muted but resolute resistance to those efforts from career employees.  If the Trump administration pursues similar goals, I would expect similar results.  I anticipate that rank-and-file enforcement personnel in the regional offices will continue to pursue and prosecute instances of statutory/regulatory noncompliance (consistent with budgetary constraints).  In light of the largely completed trend of delegating environmental programs to the states, enforcement actions undertaken these days by the EPA regional offices frequently involve allegations of significant regulatory noncompliance that state programs are unable (or unwilling) to address effectively.  Regional political appointees will be hard-pressed to halt or forestall meritorious enforcement actions.  In addition to wanting to avoid any appearance of impropriety, those appointees will be subject to an NGO watchdog network that is considerably more developed and vibrant than it was during the Reagan years.  If EPA doesn’t enforce, the NGOs will. 

·         Times Have Changed – Like me, today’s regulatory enforcement landscape bears little resemblance to what it looked like 36 years ago.  I can well recall spirited conversations in the late 70’s/early 80’s with reluctant program managers for some of the Region 4 states concerning the states’ adoption and enforcement of a regulatory framework that mimicked the basic structure of the major federal programs (air, water, and waste).  Those days are long gone, and I would anticipate that any efforts to suppress enforcement at the federal level will have minimal impact in those authorized states that have active enforcement programs.  Also, while some NGOs (e.g., NRDC, Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund) were quite active during the Reagan administration, particularly in high profile enforcement matters, the proliferation since that time in the number and variety of well-financed NGOs at the national, regional, and state level will likely compensate for any decrease in EPA enforcement that may occur under President Trump.  Ironically, what we may see in some cases is initiation of enforcement actions by EPA that blunt the use of citizen suits by NGOs, followed by settlements on terms considered less stringent than the NGOs would prefer.

Given President-elect Trump’s penchant for unpredictability and the current uncertainties surrounding the ultimate composition of the Trump environmental team, I’m not confident in my predictive powers, other than to say that we are about to embark on what I will gently call an interesting time in the history of environmental regulation.  Whether it proves to be déjà vu remains to be seen.

Trump’s Impact on Environmental Law? Let the Speculation Begin!

Posted on November 15, 2016 by Seth Jaffe

What will a Trump Presidency mean for environmental law?  trump-climateI’m not sure my crystal ball is better than anyone else’s, but here are a few quick thoughts:

  • It’s still going to be difficult to amend the key statutes, unless the GOP goes nuclear with the filibuster rules.  I don’t see Clean Air Act amendments happening.  Significant amendments might be possible to the Endangered Species Act and Superfund.
  • Changing regulations is more difficult than one might think.  As has already been noted, the Bush administration did not fare too well with judicial review of its efforts to roll back some Clinton environmental initiatives.  For example, I still think that the new ozone standard should survive and I think that courts would take a dim view of EPA efforts to raise it.  The Clean Power Plan is another matter.  All Trump needs there may be a new Supreme Court Justice.
  • The easiest target is executive orders.  The social cost of carbon?  Toast.  Guidance on incorporating climate change into NEPA?  Toast.

Trying to keep things light, I’ll close with a summary in haiku, which often takes nature as its subject.

Trump Presidency?

Deep-six the Clean Power Plan

Goodbye to winter