Sunday’s New York Times had an op-ed piece by Cass Sunstein, recently departed head of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, advocating for sensible measures to address global climate change. Sunstein’s argument is that

"Economists of diverse viewpoints concur that if the international community entered into a sensible agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the economic benefits would greatly outweigh the costs."

I don’t disagree with anything he says; I only wonder whether anyone is paying attention. On one hand, while Sunstein notes that President Obama supports cost-benefit analysis, Democrats in Congress – and many environmentalists – have long been skeptical, treating environmental questions as moral issues that should not be subject to something as crass as cost-benefit analysis.

Republicans used to support cost-benefit analysis. Indeed, Sunstein opens the op-ed with a discussion of the Reagan administration’s support of the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting chemicals. However, for the past ten years or so, Republicans have abandoned cost-benefit analysis for something much simpler – cost analysis. Today, if regulations cost too much – whatever that means – then they are “job-killers” and thus bad, even if the benefits exceed costs, sometimes by several multiples.

Maybe four years at MIT brainwashed me into blind acceptance of quantitative analysis, but this stuff doesn’t seem that hard to me. It is profoundly depressing that a significant number of environmentalists look only to the benefits of environmental regulation, while a similar percentage of conservatives now only look at its costs.

Somehow, we’ve got to get the twain to meet.

As goes California, so goes the rest of the nation? That could be the case with respect to climate change and the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate change and the implications of California’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (also known as AB 32) continue to remain a topic of great debate and speculation nationwide, as well as in California. AB 32 recently survived an initiative challenge during California’s November 2010 election cycle, and deadlines established in AB 32 to meet greenhouse gas reduction goals continue to loom. Recently, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who just left office a few days ago, gave remarks at a California Air Resources Board meeting and acknowledged the “great, great benefits” from the creation of green jobs and venture capital being provided to GHG reduction projects. However, the Governor’s excitement for the benefits of AB 32 and climate change initiatives were tempered by California’s economic reality. According to the Governor:

We have to be sensitive because it is an economic downturn and this Air Resources Board knows that they have to be sensitive. But we have to reach our goal by 2020, our reductions of 25 percent and we’ve got to go and have our 33 percent of renewables by 2020. There are no two ways about that.

So what does this mean as we look forward to 2011 with a new Governor and lingering fiscal issues?
 

One area of law where climate change is bound to remain an active topic of discussion, and likely litigation and regulatory development, is with respect to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). At the time AB 32 was adopted, there was uncertainty about the type of greenhouse gas emissions analysis that would be required under CEQA, and opponents of development projects filed several lawsuits to challenge projects on that basis. The early California State superior court decisions after passage of AB 32 ran the gamut from not requiring climate change analysis or a discussion of AB 32 , to finding an environmental impact report inadequate for failing to make a meaningful attempt to determine the project’s effect on global warming simply because it was “speculative”. In 2007, California adopted SB 97, which directed the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) to develop recommended amendments to the State CEQA Guidelines for addressing greenhouse gas emissions , with the goal of creating a coordinated policy – instead of a “piecemeal approach dictated by litigation .” The amendments became effective in March 2010.

Despite the adoption of the CEQA guidelines amendments, how state and local agencies should analyze and, when necessary, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions still remain somewhat of a mystery, because the amended guidelines and most local governing bodies have fallen short of providing a clear threshold as to what constitutes a significant impact under CEQA, and what should be done to mitigate the impact. However, what we can anticipate for 2011 is that project applicants must “do something” – business as usual (i.e. developing projects without evaluating and, as necessary, reducing GHG emissions) will likely not suffice. The amended guidelines have been adopted, models for quantifying GHG emissions are available, and state and local agencies such as the Attorney General’s Office ) and various air quality management districts have provided recommended mitigation measures and performance-based and numeric thresholds related to climate change. The California Court of Appeal also weighed in on the “do something” mantra in April 2010 in concluding that an environmental impact report was inadequate because it improperly deferred an evaluation of GHG mitigation measures. It held that, “[d]ifficulties caused by evolving technologies and scientific protocols do not justify a lead agency’s failure to meet its responsibilities under CEQA by not even attempting to formulate a legally adequate mitigation plan.”

All in all, with AB 32 left intact, the adoption of the new CEQA Guidelines, and the CARB regulatory package for implementation of AB 32 likely to be put in place, 2011 promises to be an active year in California’s legal and regulatory environment – one that the nation will continue to closely monitor as California takes the lead.

By James R. Farrell

Butler, Snow, O’Mara, Stevens & Cannada, PLLC (www.butlersnow.com)

Regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has become a reality. Although the Supreme Court’s 2007 ruling in Massachusetts v. EPA deserves much of the credit for EPA’s aggressive response to global warming, congressional inaction on comprehensive climate change legislation ultimately set in motion the agency-driven agenda that has led our country to an historic yet extremely controversial crossroads in environmental regulation. The Supreme Court’s conclusion that GHGs constitute air pollutants as defined by the Clean Air Act required EPA to determine whether GHG emissions from motor vehicles cause or contribute to climate change that is reasonably anticipated to endanger the public health or welfare; however, the Court’s requirement for regulatory action did not preclude the possibility of a legislative response.

Despite the dim prospects for comprehensive climate change legislation today in the wake of the turbulent 2010 mid-year elections, the political landscape appeared far more favorable little more than eighteen months ago. On June 26, 2009, the House had narrowly passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (the “Waxman-Markey Bill”) by a vote of 219-212. The Waxman-Markey Bill featured a cap and trade component to regulate GHG emissions, and the bill would have required a seventeen percent reduction in GHG emissions from 2005 levels by 2020 and an eighty percent reduction by 2050. 

In the Senate, Senators John Kerry (D-MA), Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), and Lindsay Graham (R-SC) had been hard at work on a comparable climate change bill dubbed the American Power Act. In early 2010, the bill appeared to have bipartisan support due in large part to its provision for expanded offshore drilling, an early and significant concession by the bill’s sponsors. But when the Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20^th, everything changed. As public outrage at the offshore drilling industry grew daily in response to the unprecedented magnitude of the oil spill, it triggered a proportional decrease in political will for comprehensive climate change legislation. By the time the American Power Act was introduced on May 12^th, Senator Graham had already withdrawn his support insisting that the ongoing and more immediate threat posed by the Gulf oil spill had “made it extremely difficult for transformational legislation in the area of energy and climate to garner bipartisan support . . . .”

In the end, the legislative response to climate change that had once appeared likely – if not imminent – never materialized. In contrast, EPA has wasted no time since Massachusetts v. EPA engaging in regulation-making intended to address climate change. The culmination and cornerstone of this fervent EPA activity is EPA’s Prevention of Significant Deterioration and Title V Greenhouse Gas Tailoring Rule (the “Tailoring Rule”), which will usher in a new and hotly contested era of GHG regulation on January 2, 2011. The Tailoring Rule’s phased-in approach to regulation means that the regulatory net it casts will gradually widen with time, initially targeting those stationary sources known to be the largest emitters of GHG emissions but eventually encompassing some smaller sources as well. 

Whether or not you’ll be ringing in the new year this year likely depends on your political persuasion. For many environmental groups who have lobbied tirelessly for greenhouse gas regulation, 2011 is a long-awaited (and soon to be much-celebrated) new year. For many in industry, however, 2011 is likely to be a year of nostalgia filled with no less than 365 opportunities to remember fondly the less regulated days of yesteryear. Happy New Year!

Butler, Snow, O’Mara, Stevens & Cannada, PLLC (www.butlersnow.com)

·        John A. Crawford

·        Michael D. Caples

·        James I. Palmer, Jr.

Earlier this month, the State of New Mexico adopted a rule designed to cap greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions in New Mexico and implement the State’s participation in a cap and trade market based on the design guidelines of the Western Climate Initiative (“WCI”). But it is too soon to tell how the New Mexico GHG rule will shake out. The future of cap and trade in New Mexico depends on many developments that range from the election of a new governor who will take office in January 2011, the fate of California’s cap and trade program, and the potential that the New Mexico GHG rulemaking will be appealed. An additional New Mexico only greenhouse gas cap and reduction proposal will also be considered by the New Mexico Environmental Improvement Board (“EIB”) in early December. 

            On November 2, 2010, after lengthy and contentious debate, EIB narrowly adopted the GHG rule that was proposed by the New Mexico Environment Department (“NMED”) last spring. The rule provides for a cap and trade program for certain GHG emissions in New Mexico that could start as early as 2012. The program would not be initiated without participation of other states with GHG emissions sufficient to provide a base of at least 100 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions.  This requirement is designed to avoid the State’s implementing a trading program alone. For all practical purposes, because the trigger for implementation is a base of at least 100 million tons, the New Mexico cap and trade program will not be able to move forward without implementation of the California program. Of the 7 initial participating WCI states, only New Mexico and California are moving forward at this time to implement a cap and trade program.        

The New Mexico GHG rule would apply to about 63 large industrial facilities that emit GHGs in the State. The affected facilities include primarily power plants and large oil and gas operations. After the rule becomes effective, the affected facilities would be required to reduce emissions by 2% annually until 2020 or be required to acquire offset credits for emissions from other jurisdictions or external trading programs. The State would initially provide allocations for baseline emissions for those currently existing regulated facilities without charge.  

            Also in November, the EIB adopted mandatory reporting and verification rules. The rules require sources emitting more than 10,000 metric tons of CO2e emissions to report emissions. Those sources with greater than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions are required to obtain third-party verification of emissions.   This rule is scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2011, regardless of whether the cap and trade rule goes into effect. NMED estimates that 130 to 150 sources will be affected by the reporting rule. 

            Challenges to New Mexico’s GHG rule are likely. The margin of the EIB vote on the rule was narrow, four to three in favor. Moreover, on the day EIB adopted the rule, the New Mexico voters elected a new governor, Susanna Martinez. The Republican governor-elect’s campaign positions included opposition to WCI and the GHC initiatives of the current Democratic governor, Bill Richardson. It seems likely that the new GHC rule will not meet with favor in a Martinez administration. The change of administration is particularly important because to date, Governor Richardson’s support for New Mexico GHG initiatives has been critical to their adoption. New Mexico’s participation in WCI was initiated by Executive Order, and NMED’s efforts to implement the WCI cap and trade program in the state legislature have been unsuccessful. 

            In addition to the recently adopted GHC cap and trade and reporting and verification rules that were proposed by NMED, an additional petition by The New Energy Economy that would put a cap on GHG emissions in New Mexico is scheduled for decision by the EIB in early December. The New Energy Economy petition asks EIB to mandate that large facilities emitting greenhouse gases must reduce their emissions by 3% every year from 2010 levels, regardless of the development of a cap and trade market in the region.   If adopted, the program would sunset in 2020, and also be suspended in any year that a source begins reducing GHG emissions pursuant to a multi-jurisdictional or national GHG reduction program.

            The future will tell us which of the two votes taken on November 2 will prove most important. Some key opponents to the New Mexico GHC rule have expressed support for a federal cap and trade effort, but other very significant concerns remain, particularly regarding GHG proposals that are merely state or regional. In New Mexico, as in the rest of the country, the GHG trading market is far from open.

With Congress failing to act on climate change, attention turns to EPA’s efforts to regulate greenhouse gases (GHGs) pursuant to its authority under the Clean Air Act (CAA). On December 7, 2009, the EPA issued its Endangerment Finding for GHGs, concluding under the CAA’s mobile source section that GHGs endanger public health and welfare, and that GHG emissions from motor vehicles contribute to climate change. See 74 Fed. Reg. 66,496 (Dec. 15, 2009). The determination was a direct response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497 (2007), holding that because GHGs are considered “air pollutants” under § 202(a) of the CAA, EPA has authority to regulate them if it determines that they endanger public health or welfare.

Although the Endangerment Finding does not itself impose any requirements on regulated entities, it sets in motion a chain of events culminating in the regulation of GHGs emissions from stationary sources under the CAA. First, it is the predicate for EPA’s rule, signed jointly with the Department of Transportation (DOT) on April 1, 2010, to create GHG emission standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for light duty vehicles (e.g., cars, light-trucks). See 74 Fed. Reg. 49,454 (proposed on Sept. 15, 2009); 75 Fed. Reg. 25324 (finalized on May 7, 2010). This will dramatically improve fuel economy, requiring automobile companies to meet a combined average fleet of 250 grams of CO2 per mile, or 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. Additionally, on May 21, 2010, President Obama directed the EPA and DOT to create GHG and CAFE standards for medium- and heavy-duty trucks for Model Years 2014-2018, which currently average only 6.1 miles per gallon. He also directed the agencies to extend the national program for cars and light-duty trucks to Model Years 2017-2025.
 

The implications of the initial mobile source rule cannot be overstated. According to EPA, as soon as the rule “takes effect” on January 2, 2011, GHGs will become “subject to regulation” under the CAA and therefore must be regulated from stationary sources as well. Stationary sources producing relatively low threshold quantities of GHGs would become subject to the Title V and Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) permitting programs, and potentially stringent pollution controls associated with the latter. In a related rulemaking, EPA announced that the rule would “take effect” no earlier than January 2, 2011, so that PSD for GHGs would not be triggered until that date. 75 Fed. Reg. 17004 (Apr. 2, 2010).

In anticipation of the automobile GHG standard triggering PSD for stationary sources, EPA recently finalized a “Tailoring Rule” to raise the statutory threshold for regulation under the PSD and Title V programs to insulate smaller GHG sources from being subject to such requirements. See 74 Fed. Reg. 55,292 (Oct. 27, 2009) (proposed rule); 75 Fed. Reg. 31,514 (June 3, 2010) (final rule). Under the CAA, sources emitting 100 or 250 tons per year (tpy) of a “regulated pollutant” are subject to the PSD program, while Title V permitting requirements apply to sources emitting 100 tpy or more. By increasing these thresholds to 75,000 or 100,000 tpy of GHGs under the final rulemaking, EPA hopes to protect smaller entities, such as small farms and businesses, from the prospect of onerous GHG controls. While significantly paring down the number of potentially regulated entities, the final Tailoring Rule would still cover 67% of GHG emissions from stationary sources in the United States.

Under the final rule, EPA will phase in the PSD and Title V permitting requirements in two initial stages. First, between January 2, 2011 and June 30, 2011, only sources currently subject to the PSD permitting program for pollutants other than GHGs would be subject to additional permitting requirements for their GHG emissions under PSD. Thus, where a new or modified source exceeds significant emissions thresholds for a traditional PSD pollutant and also increases GHGs by 75,000 tpy CO2e, it will be required to install Best Available Control Technology (BACT) to reduce GHG emissions. These controls are determined on a case-by-case basis during the PSD permitting process, taking into account, among other things, the cost and effectiveness of the control technology. While BACT has yet to be determined, it is very likely to carry significant teeth for new and modified facilities, and will undoubtedly be less flexible than purchasing carbon credits to offset a facility’s emissions. Similarly, only sources currently subject to the Title V operating permit program would be required to meet applicable GHG requirements. No sources would be subject to CAA permitting requirements based solely on their GHG emissions at this time.

Under Step 2 (July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2013), new construction projects emitting at least 100,000 tpy CO2e of GHGs and modifications of existing facilities increasing GHG emissions by 75,000 tpy CO2e will be subject to PSD permitting requirements, regardless of whether they significantly increase emissions of any other pollutant. Title V operating permit requirements will apply to sources emitting at least 100,000 tpy of GHGs. The rules will require certain sources, such as solid waste landfills and industrial manufacturers, to acquire permits for the first time.

Finally, EPA plans on exploring a third step, which may expand permitting requirements for sources emitting at least 50,000 tpy of GHGs, but will not require permitting for facilities emitting below that threshold. Sources exceeding the 50,000 tpy threshold would not be subject to permitting requirements until at least April 2016.

As part of this flurry of new climate change regulatory activity, EPA also approved a Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule, requiring fossil fuel or industrial GHG suppliers, vehicle and engine manufacturers, and facilities emitting greater than 25,000 tpy GHGs to submit annual reports to EPA reporting their emissions. 74 Fed. Reg. 56,260 (Oct. 30, 2009). The information gathered will be used to create a national GHG registry covering 85-90% of national emissions, while also informing future policy decisions. Facilities must commence monitoring on January 1, 2010 and submit to EPA their first annual reports containing 2010 data by March 31, 2011.

Although most of EPA’s measures are sure to be challenged in court, they represent an extremely critical foundation for greenhouse gas controls in the U.S. EPA action under the Obama Administration has all but ensured that U.S. businesses will operate in a carbon-constrained environment.

We are not going to have Congressional action on a regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the time EPA will feel compelled to respond to the Supreme Court's direction in the Massachusetts case and announce whether CO2 emissions endanger public health or welfare. If endangerment is found under Section 109 or 202 of the Act, it appears to lead to ambient air quality standards for CO2 which are then to be met through state implementation plans. By controlling the sources of CO2 within its borders, no state is likely to be able to reduce CO2 to whatever ambient level is established. This is the practical result of the fact that greenhouse gases are a global problem not a local or regional problem. Moreover, the regulation of CO2 under other portions of the Act will likely follow. Perhaps the chaos likely to ensue from following this course will push Congress to pass legislation addressing greenhouse gases. But relying on Congress to do the sensible thing may well be an imprudent course.

Why not try an endangerment finding under Section 115 of the Act instead? It addresses international air pollution which is what GHG emissions are. It calls for a determination of endangerment in a foreign country from sources in the United States. The determination is deemed a finding under Sec.110(a)(2)(H)(ii) of the Act; that finding may be that the relevant SIP is substantially inadequate to comply with the requirements of the Act but need not be that it is inadequate to attain the NAAQS. The affected foreign country must be invited to appear at public hearings on appropriate revision of the SIP and the United States must be given reciprocal rights by the foreign country. Making the determination and establishing reciprocity would take EPA into comparatively unfamiliar territory; starting GHG reduction through state action would follow the path that the US has already started down.

The advantages of this approach that I see are, first, that it deals with the GHG issue as a global, or at least an international, problem rather than as a local or regional one. Second, it gives the states the opportunity to proceed with cap-and-trade regimes which I think will, in some form, be the Congressional solution. Third, it may be able to avoid introducing GHG regulation into other CAA programs such as New Source Review which may be hard to untangle if and when a cap-and-trade regime is established.

The disadvantages are that it is certainly not a perfect fit with a national cap-and-trade or GHG emission tax scheme which I view as the most rational approaches that Congress might enact (though the rationality of a tax scheme is much greater than the likelihood that Congress would embrace it). If you favor command and control regulation and the complexity of New Source Review, this is not the solution for you. There are also risks in what the courts may do in interpreting Section 115 which has rarely been subjected to judicial scrutiny.

In sum, I suggest Section 115 as the best of the ill-fitting options which the Clean Air Act offers for a rational approach to reducing GHG emissions.  

We are not going to have Congressional action on a regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the time EPA will feel compelled to respond to the Supreme Court's direction in the Massachusetts case and announce whether CO2 emissions endanger public health or welfare. If endangerment is found under Section 109 or 202 of the Act, it appears to lead to ambient air quality standards for CO2 which are then to be met through state implementation plans. By controlling the sources of CO2 within its borders, no state is likely to be able to reduce CO2 to whatever ambient level is established. This is the practical result of the fact that greenhouse gases are a global problem not a local or regional problem. Moreover, the regulation of CO2 under other portions of the Act will likely follow. Perhaps the chaos likely to ensue from following this course will push Congress to pass legislation addressing greenhouse gases. But relying on Congress to do the sensible thing may well be an imprudent course.

Why not try an endangerment finding under Section 115 of the Act instead? It addresses international air pollution which is what GHG emissions are. It calls for a determination of endangerment in a foreign country from sources in the United States. The determination is deemed a finding under Sec.110(a)(2)(H)(ii) of the Act; that finding may be that the relevant SIP is substantially inadequate to comply with the requirements of the Act but need not be that it is inadequate to attain the NAAQS. The affected foreign country must be invited to appear at public hearings on appropriate revision of the SIP and the United States must be given reciprocal rights by the foreign country. Making the determination and establishing reciprocity would take EPA into comparatively unfamiliar territory; starting GHG reduction through state action would follow the path that the US has already started down.

The advantages of this approach that I see are, first, that it deals with the GHG issue as a global, or at least an international, problem rather than as a local or regional one. Second, it gives the states the opportunity to proceed with cap-and-trade regimes which I think will, in some form, be the Congressional solution. Third, it may be able to avoid introducing GHG regulation into other CAA programs such as New Source Review which may be hard to untangle if and when a cap-and-trade regime is established.

The disadvantages are that it is certainly not a perfect fit with a national cap-and-trade or GHG emission tax scheme which I view as the most rational approaches that Congress might enact (though the rationality of a tax scheme is much greater than the likelihood that Congress would embrace it). If you favor command and control regulation and the complexity of New Source Review, this is not the solution for you. There are also risks in what the courts may do in interpreting Section 115 which has rarely been subjected to judicial scrutiny.

In sum, I suggest Section 115 as the best of the ill-fitting options which the Clean Air Act offers for a rational approach to reducing GHG emissions.  

We are not going to have Congressional action on a regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the time EPA will feel compelled to respond to the Supreme Court's direction in the Massachusetts case and announce whether CO2 emissions endanger public health or welfare. If endangerment is found under Section 109 or 202 of the Act, it appears to lead to ambient air quality standards for CO2 which are then to be met through state implementation plans. By controlling the sources of CO2 within its borders, no state is likely to be able to reduce CO2 to whatever ambient level is established. This is the practical result of the fact that greenhouse gases are a global problem not a local or regional problem. Moreover, the regulation of CO2 under other portions of the Act will likely follow. Perhaps the chaos likely to ensue from following this course will push Congress to pass legislation addressing greenhouse gases. But relying on Congress to do the sensible thing may well be an imprudent course.

Why not try an endangerment finding under Section 115 of the Act instead? It addresses international air pollution which is what GHG emissions are. It calls for a determination of endangerment in a foreign country from sources in the United States. The determination is deemed a finding under Sec.110(a)(2)(H)(ii) of the Act; that finding may be that the relevant SIP is substantially inadequate to comply with the requirements of the Act but need not be that it is inadequate to attain the NAAQS. The affected foreign country must be invited to appear at public hearings on appropriate revision of the SIP and the United States must be given reciprocal rights by the foreign country. Making the determination and establishing reciprocity would take EPA into comparatively unfamiliar territory; starting GHG reduction through state action would follow the path that the US has already started down.

The advantages of this approach that I see are, first, that it deals with the GHG issue as a global, or at least an international, problem rather than as a local or regional one. Second, it gives the states the opportunity to proceed with cap-and-trade regimes which I think will, in some form, be the Congressional solution. Third, it may be able to avoid introducing GHG regulation into other CAA programs such as New Source Review which may be hard to untangle if and when a cap-and-trade regime is established.

The disadvantages are that it is certainly not a perfect fit with a national cap-and-trade or GHG emission tax scheme which I view as the most rational approaches that Congress might enact (though the rationality of a tax scheme is much greater than the likelihood that Congress would embrace it). If you favor command and control regulation and the complexity of New Source Review, this is not the solution for you. There are also risks in what the courts may do in interpreting Section 115 which has rarely been subjected to judicial scrutiny.

In sum, I suggest Section 115 as the best of the ill-fitting options which the Clean Air Act offers for a rational approach to reducing GHG emissions.  

We are not going to have Congressional action on a regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the time EPA will feel compelled to respond to the Supreme Court's direction in the Massachusetts case and announce whether CO2 emissions endanger public health or welfare. If endangerment is found under Section 109 or 202 of the Act, it appears to lead to ambient air quality standards for CO2 which are then to be met through state implementation plans. By controlling the sources of CO2 within its borders, no state is likely to be able to reduce CO2 to whatever ambient level is established. This is the practical result of the fact that greenhouse gases are a global problem not a local or regional problem. Moreover, the regulation of CO2 under other portions of the Act will likely follow. Perhaps the chaos likely to ensue from following this course will push Congress to pass legislation addressing greenhouse gases. But relying on Congress to do the sensible thing may well be an imprudent course.

Why not try an endangerment finding under Section 115 of the Act instead? It addresses international air pollution which is what GHG emissions are. It calls for a determination of endangerment in a foreign country from sources in the United States. The determination is deemed a finding under Sec.110(a)(2)(H)(ii) of the Act; that finding may be that the relevant SIP is substantially inadequate to comply with the requirements of the Act but need not be that it is inadequate to attain the NAAQS. The affected foreign country must be invited to appear at public hearings on appropriate revision of the SIP and the United States must be given reciprocal rights by the foreign country. Making the determination and establishing reciprocity would take EPA into comparatively unfamiliar territory; starting GHG reduction through state action would follow the path that the US has already started down.

The advantages of this approach that I see are, first, that it deals with the GHG issue as a global, or at least an international, problem rather than as a local or regional one. Second, it gives the states the opportunity to proceed with cap-and-trade regimes which I think will, in some form, be the Congressional solution. Third, it may be able to avoid introducing GHG regulation into other CAA programs such as New Source Review which may be hard to untangle if and when a cap-and-trade regime is established.

The disadvantages are that it is certainly not a perfect fit with a national cap-and-trade or GHG emission tax scheme which I view as the most rational approaches that Congress might enact (though the rationality of a tax scheme is much greater than the likelihood that Congress would embrace it). If you favor command and control regulation and the complexity of New Source Review, this is not the solution for you. There are also risks in what the courts may do in interpreting Section 115 which has rarely been subjected to judicial scrutiny.

In sum, I suggest Section 115 as the best of the ill-fitting options which the Clean Air Act offers for a rational approach to reducing GHG emissions.  

We are not going to have Congressional action on a regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the time EPA will feel compelled to respond to the Supreme Court's direction in the Massachusetts case and announce whether CO2 emissions endanger public health or welfare. If endangerment is found under Section 109 or 202 of the Act, it appears to lead to ambient air quality standards for CO2 which are then to be met through state implementation plans. By controlling the sources of CO2 within its borders, no state is likely to be able to reduce CO2 to whatever ambient level is established. This is the practical result of the fact that greenhouse gases are a global problem not a local or regional problem. Moreover, the regulation of CO2 under other portions of the Act will likely follow. Perhaps the chaos likely to ensue from following this course will push Congress to pass legislation addressing greenhouse gases. But relying on Congress to do the sensible thing may well be an imprudent course.

Why not try an endangerment finding under Section 115 of the Act instead? It addresses international air pollution which is what GHG emissions are. It calls for a determination of endangerment in a foreign country from sources in the United States. The determination is deemed a finding under Sec.110(a)(2)(H)(ii) of the Act; that finding may be that the relevant SIP is substantially inadequate to comply with the requirements of the Act but need not be that it is inadequate to attain the NAAQS. The affected foreign country must be invited to appear at public hearings on appropriate revision of the SIP and the United States must be given reciprocal rights by the foreign country. Making the determination and establishing reciprocity would take EPA into comparatively unfamiliar territory; starting GHG reduction through state action would follow the path that the US has already started down.

The advantages of this approach that I see are, first, that it deals with the GHG issue as a global, or at least an international, problem rather than as a local or regional one. Second, it gives the states the opportunity to proceed with cap-and-trade regimes which I think will, in some form, be the Congressional solution. Third, it may be able to avoid introducing GHG regulation into other CAA programs such as New Source Review which may be hard to untangle if and when a cap-and-trade regime is established.

The disadvantages are that it is certainly not a perfect fit with a national cap-and-trade or GHG emission tax scheme which I view as the most rational approaches that Congress might enact (though the rationality of a tax scheme is much greater than the likelihood that Congress would embrace it). If you favor command and control regulation and the complexity of New Source Review, this is not the solution for you. There are also risks in what the courts may do in interpreting Section 115 which has rarely been subjected to judicial scrutiny.

In sum, I suggest Section 115 as the best of the ill-fitting options which the Clean Air Act offers for a rational approach to reducing GHG emissions.  

We are not going to have Congressional action on a regime for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the time EPA will feel compelled to respond to the Supreme Court's direction in the Massachusetts case and announce whether CO2 emissions endanger public health or welfare. If endangerment is found under Section 109 or 202 of the Act, it appears to lead to ambient air quality standards for CO2 which are then to be met through state implementation plans. By controlling the sources of CO2 within its borders, no state is likely to be able to reduce CO2 to whatever ambient level is established. This is the practical result of the fact that greenhouse gases are a global problem not a local or regional problem. Moreover, the regulation of CO2 under other portions of the Act will likely follow. Perhaps the chaos likely to ensue from following this course will push Congress to pass legislation addressing greenhouse gases. But relying on Congress to do the sensible thing may well be an imprudent course.

Why not try an endangerment finding under Section 115 of the Act instead? It addresses international air pollution which is what GHG emissions are. It calls for a determination of endangerment in a foreign country from sources in the United States. The determination is deemed a finding under Sec.110(a)(2)(H)(ii) of the Act; that finding may be that the relevant SIP is substantially inadequate to comply with the requirements of the Act but need not be that it is inadequate to attain the NAAQS. The affected foreign country must be invited to appear at public hearings on appropriate revision of the SIP and the United States must be given reciprocal rights by the foreign country. Making the determination and establishing reciprocity would take EPA into comparatively unfamiliar territory; starting GHG reduction through state action would follow the path that the US has already started down.

The advantages of this approach that I see are, first, that it deals with the GHG issue as a global, or at least an international, problem rather than as a local or regional one. Second, it gives the states the opportunity to proceed with cap-and-trade regimes which I think will, in some form, be the Congressional solution. Third, it may be able to avoid introducing GHG regulation into other CAA programs such as New Source Review which may be hard to untangle if and when a cap-and-trade regime is established.

The disadvantages are that it is certainly not a perfect fit with a national cap-and-trade or GHG emission tax scheme which I view as the most rational approaches that Congress might enact (though the rationality of a tax scheme is much greater than the likelihood that Congress would embrace it). If you favor command and control regulation and the complexity of New Source Review, this is not the solution for you. There are also risks in what the courts may do in interpreting Section 115 which has rarely been subjected to judicial scrutiny.

In sum, I suggest Section 115 as the best of the ill-fitting options which the Clean Air Act offers for a rational approach to reducing GHG emissions.